In recent months, markets have remained surprisingly calm. After a turbulent period dominated by inflation and geopolitical tensions, conditions seem to have returned to an apparent normality. Yet, it is often in these moments of calm that the most dangerous fragilities lie hidden.
In the third quarter of 2025, market momentum was driven mainly by the euphoria surrounding artificial intelligence. The rally of major tech giants, fueled by liquidity and high expectations, has overshadowed signs of macroeconomic slowdown. In reality, the balance remains fragile: global demand is weakening, consumption is slowing, and productivity is flattening—particularly in the United States.
At the same time, the concentration of gains in a handful of stocks and the compression of credit spreads bring back memories of bubble-like dynamics. We are not in a recessionary environment, but some indicators call for greater caution from investors.
What lies ahead in the coming months? Find out in the Quarterly Analysis prepared by Banca Profilo’s Asset Management Committee.
