After a 2025 driven by enthusiasm and liquidity, the new year has opened on less linear foundations. The initial market rebound found support in segments such as European tech and US small caps, but it took little to bring uncertainty back to center stage: the Greenland dossier, the return of tariffs, and tensions between the new US administration and the Federal Reserve quickly shifted sentiment.
The macroeconomic picture remains difficult to read. In the United States, growth is holding up but is accompanied by inconsistent signals on employment and inflation still above target. In Europe, fiscal stimulus clashes with the need to respect budget constraints. China continues to grow but in an unbalanced manner, while Japan remains grappling with persistent yen weakness.
The outlook does not indicate a cycle reversal, but rather a phase of greater selectivity. Artificial intelligence continues to drive markets, but enters a more mature phase where it will be essential to distinguish between sustainable growth and hype. In fixed income as well, the context requires a more cautious approach, given stretched valuations and widespread fiscal pressures.
2026 will therefore require careful, consistent, and long-term oriented management. It won’t be a sprint, but a journey to tackle with a marathoner’s discipline.
Watch the Quarterly Analysis produced by Banca Profilo’s Asset Management Committee to explore the main economic scenarios and investment strategies.
