EGM Analysis
The key points of the EGM Analysis update are:
- In 2Q23 there have been 4 new listings totalling 11 in 1H23 (vs 26 in FY22)
- The average market capitalization is now close to €50mln
- 38 M&A deals have been filed in 1H23 (vs 65 in FY22)
- Our coverage shows an average revenue of €84mln (vs EGM at €52mln) with 22% EBITDA margin (vs EGM at 15%)
- Over the past 12 months, Consumer Discretionary confirmed as the “cheapest” sector with an average EV/EBITDA 2022 at 5.4x, while Consumer Staples remained the most “expensive” sector in the EGM with an average EV/EBITDA 2022 of 10.9x.
- Over the past 12 months, there has been a general multiples re-rating with Utilities showing the largest increase of EV/EBITDA (from 6.8x in 2H22 to 8.4x in 1H23) followed by Basic Materials (from 4.8x in 2H22 to 6.0x respectively).
For more details, download the Analysis.
The AI boom in the markets: opportunities and risks
It is customary on Wall Street to say that, in the long run, pessimistic investors appear to be the “smarter” ones, but in reality, it is the optimistic ones who make the money.
In the last month, the American market has confirmed this narrative with positive performances, despite most analysts preaching caution. While the Eurozone’s GDP confirmed a “technical recession”, the stock markets are rewarding the growth sector, tech stocks and artificial intelligence in particular, issues notoriously more sensitive to monetary policy decisions.
What opportunities and risks will AI technology bring to the markets?
They explain it in the video, Lorenzo Fuscà Head of Wealth Management and Emanuele Fino Investment Advisory of Banca Profilo.
Markets in May: the American public debt crisis
In recent weeks, the markets have remained suspended in a kind of “limbo” between fears about growth and the end of rate hikes, also due to the crisis in the banking sector in the US, with the bankruptcy of three financial institutions which then caused a strong tension on the whole sector on a global level.
Another major risk that lies ahead is that relating to the overrun of the US public debt ceiling, Washington will have to raise the debt ceiling to avoid falling into the risk of insolvency: Republicans and Democrats have little time to find an agreement and a definitive solution .
What will happen to Washington? Will Republicans and Democrats be able to reach an agreement?
They explain it in the video, Lorenzo Fuscà Head of Wealth Management and Stefania Cardone Investment Advisory of Banca Profilo.
Arepo BP and Twenty First Capital reach an agreement
Arepo BP, our controlling shareholder, and Twenty First Capital S.a.S. (TFC) – a French management company of alternative investment funds and limited partners and portfolio manager of the French-registered fund Fonds Archimedes – have reached a conditional binding agreement for the sale of a number of Banca Profilo shares held by Arepo representing the 29 % of share capital net of treasury shares.
The total price for the sale is equal to Euro 50.4 million, significantly higher than the market values and corresponding to our valuation of approximately Euro 180 million for 100%. TFC’s commitment to carry out the sale is subject to the circumstance that Arepo concludes agreements for the sale of at least a further 22% of the share capital of the same, with third party investors to be identified, including strategic and financial subjects.
TFC represented that it is interested in acquiring Banca Profilo as part of the overall strategy of Fonds Archimedes aimed at building a portfolio of medium-sized European financial services providers.
The operation is therefore part of the long-term strategic investments of the Fonds Archimedes with the aim of guaranteeing the continuity of our business model and at the same time helping to develop and further expand the bank’s activities so as to continue our journey of excellence as an Italian and European financial boutique.
Read the press release here.
First quarter 2023 results
The results for the first 3 months of 2023 are overall higher than the budget targets and the Business Plan. The services of Banca Profilo and the work performed on a daily basis led us to consolidate, at the end of the first quarter, net revenues at 23.6 million euro (+8.5% y/y) and net profit at 6.2 million euros (+20.1% y/y).
The operating result increased, amounting to 10.6 million euro (+16.6% y/y) and the Cost Income improved, which stood at 55.1%. Customer deposits consolidate at €5.8 billion (-0.7% y/y), down due to the market effect and despite positive net inflows of €45.2 million since the beginning of the year.
CET 1 ratio increases to 25.6%, confirming the capital and financial solidity of Banca Profilo, one of the highest on the market.
Read the press release to find out more.
Svas Biosana: post FY22 results update
Svas Biosana is an Italian company specialized in the healthcare sector, active in the production and distribution of medical devices for public and private healthcare facilities.
Our equity research confirms the BUY and maintains the Target Price at €17.
Find out why in the analysis by Francesca Romana Sabatini Head of Equity Research and Michele Calusa Equity Research Analyst.
Sciuker: post FY22 results update
Sciuker is a leader in Italy in the design and production of eco-sustainable windows and has established the first Made in Italy design window and sunshade hub. Following the release of 2022 results, the Company confirms its business plan targets for 2023.
Our equity research confirms the BUY and reduces the Target Price to €15.1
Find out why in the analysis by Francesca Romana Sabatini Head of Equity Research and Eleonora Chetrì Equity Research Analyst.
Download the search here
