The picture is twofold: company fundamentals are holding up, but listing flows continue to deteriorate and liquidity remains structurally weak, making market-support policies decisive.
On the listings front, 2026 YTD marks the first negative net balance (−6) after +137 cumulative additions over 2016-25: the number of listed companies falls to 206, from the end-2025 peak of 212. There has been just 1 IPO since the start of the year, raising a mere €0.2mln, against an average of ~20 IPOs per year at €7.1mln in 2024-25; takeover bids drive 86% of the exits (6 YTD, on track to match the 2025 record of 11), while graduations to Euronext STAR Milan remain at zero since 2024.
M&A activity is also cooling after the 2024 peak (16 deals YTD, 12 in Q1, −45% YoY), with EGM companies acting as the acquirer in 100% of the deals.
Liquidity remains heavily concentrated: the top 10% of stocks captures ~60% of ADV (Gini ~0.72), and only 13% of names trade above €50k in average daily value, with aggregate ADV over the last 3 months at €7.6mln, below the three-year average of €7.9mln.
On fundamentals, aggregate FY25 shows VoP of €11bn (+13.6% YoY), an EBITDA margin of 12.0% and contained leverage (NFP/EBITDA ~1.0x); market capitalisation rises to €11.3bn (+20% YoY). Consensus remains broadly unchanged following the publication of FY25 results (2026E VoP €11.5bn, unchanged; expected EBITDA margin ~13.5%), and valuations re-rate marginally: median 1YF EV/EBITDA from 5.8x to 5.9x, driven by Energy and Technology, while Real Estate and Basic Materials de-rate.
The FTSE Italia Growth closes at +12.2% over 1 year / +5.6% YTD, above the STAR but below the Euronext Growth All-share.
Discover more in the attached report by Francesca Sabatini, Head of Equity Research, and Enrico Luca, CFA, Equity Research Analyst at Banca Profilo.
